Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8037…6d3a world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 20% +$1
sports 20% $0
politics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 27 +0.6% -9.0% 37% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage264d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $40 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $27 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $4 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Jan 31 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $3 +$1 +20%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $27 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $27 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $27 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $24 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $30 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $31 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $16 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $12 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $6 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $22 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.45 · official $29.47 (match) · 112 history records