Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x803a…219e
weather · 458 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,295 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,487 · open +$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$735
Realized+$1,487
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses354 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)456 / 458
History coverage72d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 456 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$434
14 days−$305
30 days+$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $485 $507 +$21 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? No 86¢ 91¢ $216 $228 +$12 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 2? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? No 85¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $152 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $301 +$26 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $380 +$106 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $235 +$50 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $129 +$21 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $87 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $123 +$14 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $490 +$51 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $185 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $106 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$13 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $144 −$80 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $723 +$31 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $462 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$35 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $341 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $302 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $362 +$30 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $68 −$67 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $173 +$21 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $156 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $185 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $74 +$23 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $98 +$26 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $166 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $136 +$10 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $426 +$33 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $70 −$18 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $148 +$5 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $414 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $155 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $449 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $32 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $119 +$8 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $80 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 19% -4.8%
≤30d 181 +1.7% -8.0% 86% 27% -7.3%
≤90d 456 -2.8% -12.1% 78% 25% -7.3%
all 456 -2.8% -12.1% 78% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 25% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 12% -16.1%
15% -28.2% 6% -24.2%
20% -35.2% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $734.89 · official $734.89 (match) · 3500 history records