Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x803a…5f50 weather 254 markets active 8h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%145W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$2
14 days−$110
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$9
world 8% −$31
sports 4% +$13
other 3% +$13
politics 1% −$8
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 59% -10.4%
≤30d 247 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 57% -10.7%
≤90d 247 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 57% -10.7%
all 247 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 57% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 57% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 48% -19.3%
15% -29.7% 35% -27.1%
20% -36.6% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses145 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)247 / 254
History coverage28d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? No 64¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? No 65¢ 71¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? No 63¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 19? Yes 27¢ 33¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? No 71¢ 67¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? No 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? No 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +244%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 63¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 71¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $14 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 41h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 57¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.48 · official $17.50 (match) · 841 history records