Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x803b…3134 other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,629 (-1%) realized −$2,629 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,492per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$38
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$106
other 40% −$1,511
sports 10% −$1,030
economics 3% −$6
world 2% −$5
tech 1% −$1
culture 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -4.7% -13.8% 13% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 90 -5.4% -14.4% 8% 2% -9.8%
all 148 -7.5% -16.3% 15% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 9% -10.6%
10% -24.3% 9% -19.2%
15% -31.6% 7% -27.0%
20% -38.3% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,120) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$27 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,629
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,492
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $2,159 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $2,985 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $3,169 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $506 +$2 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $8,246 −$9 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $227 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,265 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,480 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $653 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,090 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $547 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $68 +$48 +70%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $379 +$1 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $248 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $487 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $360 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,271 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $10,552 −$13 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $56 +$27 +48%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,551 −$4 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 20 $1,484 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 20 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $5,443 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $452 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $452 2h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $472 5h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $472 8h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $546 26h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $547 27h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $510 28h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $511 30h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $573 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $574 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $585 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $586 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $586 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $587 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $528 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $596 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $528 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $597 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $205 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $206 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $786 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $787 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $699 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $700 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $586 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 10d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $512 11d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $512 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $526 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $526 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 538 history records