Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x803d…fc31 sports 891 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$152 (-3%) realized −$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%555W / 331L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$19
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$166
crypto 16% −$16
other 9% −$25
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 39% -16.9%
≤30d 373 -9.1% -17.7% 58% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 886 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 40% -13.7%
all 886 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 40% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 17% -22.0%
15% -29.6% 7% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses555 / 331
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)886 / 891
History coverage58d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 886 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 58¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? No 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $6 −$1 -17%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $2 −$2 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 54¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 60¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL No 42¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 54¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $0 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.77 · official $15.77 (match) · 2530 history records