Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x803f…b6b3
sports · 174 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,932 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,956 · open +$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$3,956
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses48 / 125
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage88d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 173 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days−$381
30 days−$1,677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group D GenOne 26¢ 39¢ $48 $72 +$24 (+51%)
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzsch Tom Gentzsch 17¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Francesco Maestrelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Francesco Maestrelli 28¢ 0¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Yara Bartashevich Yara Bartashevich 11¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 2007 vs Hashiras (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In Group D Hashiras 28¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs TNC 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A paiN 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Group D Lilmix 33¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Campinas: Guido Justo vs Gustavo Heide Guido Justo 29¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Sorana Cirstea 38¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Melilla Titans vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Stage Melilla Titans 15¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Drama eSports 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton Alexander Blockx 21¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Morelos: Aidan Mayo vs Andres Andrade Aidan Mayo 18¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C FC Famalicão Esports 53¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A FaZe 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $98 +$197 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $146 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $98 +$155 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 30 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 30 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 30 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 30 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 26 $99 −$94 -95%
Counter-Strike: Melilla Titans vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Contender May 26 $101 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 22 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 22 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 22 $60 +$74 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 22 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 22 $101 +$57 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 22 $27 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champio May 22 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $103 +$190 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 22 $103 +$186 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 22 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 22 $10 +$18 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 22 $104 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $102 +$153 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 22 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $42 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q May 22 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 17 $105 +$249 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 17 $101 +$198 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 17 $105 +$268 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 17 $205 −$100 -49%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Group D May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 16 $100 +$220 +220%
Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Guara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group S May 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$3,267
crypto 23% −$560
other 1% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 26¢ $49 31m
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G SELL MARKandLARRY 100¢ $296 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 32¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $146 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $98 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $93 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $92 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $93 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $93 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $99 16d
Counter-Strike: Melilla Titans vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Contender BUY Melilla Titans 15¢ $101 16d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY Misa Esports 29¢ $100 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $32 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $103 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $99 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $60 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $102 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $157 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $101 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $31 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 20d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champio BUY Rebels Gaming 30¢ $133 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $105 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $102 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.1% +1.4% 40% 40% -6.7%
≤30d 66 -24.4% -31.6% 30% 29% -32.7%
≤90d 173 -19.6% -27.2% 28% 27% -28.5%
all 173 -19.6% -27.2% 28% 27% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 27% -28.5%
10% -34.2% 25% -35.4%
15% -40.5% 24% -41.6%
20% -46.4% 24% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.69 · official $71.69 (match) · 304 history records