Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8041…e69a sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$392 (+4%) realized +$395 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 35L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$879
7 days−$22
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$23
other 35% +$119
crypto 9% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 74 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 26% -8.3%
≤90d 74 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 26% -8.3%
all 74 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 26% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 26% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 23% -17.1%
15% -31.7% 23% -25.1%
20% -38.4% 18% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$46 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$395
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage13d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $251 $248 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $301 −$17 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $65 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $24 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $48 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $53 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $124 +$44 +35%
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $101 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$6 -13%
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang Jun 29 $5 −$2 -36%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$2 -7%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $58 +$5 +9%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $18 −$13 -75%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $5 −$1 -18%
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 29 $66 +$28 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $511 −$511 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $255 −$255 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$33 +64%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $103 +$101 +98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $508 +$228 +45%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $103 +$53 +52%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $205 −$202 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $255 +$170 +67%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $103 +$78 +75%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $103 +$53 +52%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $511 +$331 +65%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $255 +$143 +56%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $52 +$50 +98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $102 +$18 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$16 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $103 +$95 +92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $204 +$92 +45%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$37 +72%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $103 +$81 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $593 +$4 +1%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $91 +$1 +1%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $305 +$9 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $154 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $103 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $284 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.39 · official $248.39 (match) · 492 history records