Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
80 0x8041…fc83 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 683d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$211 (+4%) realized +$198 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%62W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$1,101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$150
14 days−$67
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$73
world 23% −$85
finance 19% +$152
politics 5% −$61
sports 4% +$83
crypto 2% +$6
economics 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +18.2% +7.0% 71% 66% -16.3%
≤30d 65 +13.7% +2.9% 75% 69% -4.9%
≤90d 73 +16.4% +5.3% 74% 68% -4.4%
all 92 +17.2% +6.0% 67% 63% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 63% -6.0%
10% -4.1% 33% -15.0%
15% -13.4% 20% -23.2%
20% -21.9% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

683d coverage
Net worth$1,101
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses62 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions31
Markets (closed)92 / 123
History coverage683d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 84¢ $95 $109 +$13 (+14%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 90¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 56¢ $71 $56 −$15 (-20%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 69¢ 75¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 74¢ $42 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 83¢ 78¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-7%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 74¢ 74¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 34¢ 66¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +24%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$10 +216%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $37 +$13 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$9 +21%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $17 +$29 +165%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $41 −$7 -16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $66 −$6 -10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 +$11 +27%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$16 +155%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 18 $241 +$36 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $52 +$3 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$8 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$10 -33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$12 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 +$6 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 17 $238 +$26 +11%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$7 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$12 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$16 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 +$6 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $281 −$250 -89%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$8 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $151 −$114 -76%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$11 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 +$13 +48%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $50 −$14 -28%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $94 +$13 +14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 08 $62 +$13 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 1h
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 10h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 10h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $49 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $50 34h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $50 34h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $40 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 74¢ $25 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $50 34h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $6 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $50 34h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $50 34h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $10 34h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 84¢ $21 38h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 69¢ $34 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $6 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $54 46h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $6 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $45 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $40 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $31 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,101.21 · official $1,101.23 (match) · 304 history records