Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8042…9c34 other 46 markets active 21h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+17%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$17
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$91
sports 31% −$3
world 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.8% +7.5% 67% 67% +7.8%
≤30d 11 +20.7% +9.2% 64% 64% +9.6%
≤90d 12 +10.7% +0.1% 58% 58% +5.2%
all 46 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 61% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 61% +6.0%
10% -12.4% 61% -4.2%
15% -20.8% 61% -13.4%
20% -28.6% 43% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage120d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $10 +$16 +170%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $19 +$12 +61%
Will Torino FC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Mar 02 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $10 +$11 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $10 +$6 +61%
Blackhawks vs. Predators Feb 27 $10 +$6 +64%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $10 +$7 +70%
Magic vs. Lakers Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $10 +$9 +96%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $10 +$8 +85%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $34 +$19 +54%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $10 +$7 +72%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $14 +$7 +49%
Celtics vs. Warriors Feb 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 8d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 44d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY NIP 87¢ $6 90d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 50¢ $3 91d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 37¢ $10 97d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 97d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-13? BUY No 57¢ $5 98d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07? BUY No 57¢ $10 104d
Blues vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 57¢ $7 105d
Jazz vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 62¢ $10 106d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 62¢ $10 107d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 62¢ $10 107d
Will Torino FC vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $20 110d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 4¢ $10 112d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY No 47¢ $10 112d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 62¢ $10 113d
Blackhawks vs. Predators BUY Predators 61¢ $10 113d
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 113d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 113d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records