Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8043…121b crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$491 (+6%) realized +$377 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$114
other 6% −$32
tech 2% +$38
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -23.3% -30.6% 40% 40% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -23.3% -30.6% 40% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 5 -23.3% -30.6% 40% 40% -9.5%
all 5 -23.3% -30.6% 40% 40% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 40% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 40% -18.2%
15% -43.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -48.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
37.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,945
Realized+$377
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Down 77¢ 83¢ $1,706 $1,833 +$127 (+7%)
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Up 22¢ 18¢ $96 $80 −$16 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Up 9¢ 10¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $449 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $49 −$32 -65%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $149 +$38 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 14¢ $13 19m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 89¢ $420 23m
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 91¢ $43 27m
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 87¢ $67 29m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 84¢ $68 29m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 15¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 15¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 18¢ $15 32m
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 87¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 85¢ $86 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 73¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 15¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 73¢ $744 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 88¢ $89 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 77¢ $316 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 77¢ $75 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 16¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 75¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 16¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 17¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 18¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 19¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 72¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 23¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 22¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,945.27 · official $1,945.27 (match) · 333 history records