Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8043…5f89 other 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,843 (+1%) realized +$1,842 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%29W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,181per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$32
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$85
politics 34% −$57
sports 8% +$1,943
culture 4% +$15
economics 4% −$10
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 42 +0.6% -9.0% 7% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 117 +0.5% -9.1% 5% 3% -8.5%
all 178 +2.0% -7.7% 16% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 11% -8.8%
10% -16.5% 11% -17.5%
15% -24.6% 9% -25.5%
20% -32.0% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,591) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$8 · ×12.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$1,842
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses29 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,181
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $185 $185 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,743 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,848 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,825 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,649 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $4,188 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $820 −$1 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $965 $0 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $42 +$59 +140%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,806 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $424 +$1 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $1,758 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $7,734 −$8 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $55 +$104 +188%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $998 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 21 $717 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 20 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 19 $582 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $334 15m
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $334 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $389 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $389 3h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $433 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $434 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $202 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $202 3d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $211 4d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $211 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $707 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $708 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $614 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $615 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $641 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $643 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $781 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $782 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $815 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $595 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $596 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $716 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $717 9d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $185 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $760 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $694 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.33 · official $185.33 (match) · 595 history records