Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8044…82ff other 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$448 (+0%) realized +$448 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$1,461per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$30
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$713
politics 40% −$95
sports 11% −$183
world 2% −$4
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -4.7% -13.8% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 90 -2.5% -11.7% 7% 2% -9.7%
all 139 -2.1% -11.4% 17% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 11% -9.3%
10% -19.9% 10% -18.0%
15% -27.6% 9% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,095) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$13 · ×6.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,461
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $386 $386 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,095 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $891 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,170 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,606 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $3,121 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,562 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6,293 −$5 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 07 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $86 +$38 +44%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,089 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,019 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $354 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $536 +$1 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $204 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,011 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,088 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $4,873 −$6 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $3,071 −$4 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $824 −$5 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $2,717 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $3,012 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $3,567 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $3,573 −$4 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $3,035 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $539 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $540 3h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $557 4h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $558 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $579 8h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $580 10h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $890 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $891 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $361 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $759 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $760 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $927 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $929 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,099 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,101 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,096 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,098 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,101 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,102 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,098 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,100 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $386 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,490 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,492 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,476 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,478 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,391 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.77 · official $385.77 (match) · 461 history records