Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8044…d111 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$69
other 18% +$48
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -45.2% -50.5% 25% 25% -51.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 55% -14.4%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 55% -14.4%
all 22 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 55% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 55% -14.4%
10% -18.3% 41% -22.6%
15% -26.2% 23% -30.0%
20% -33.4% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage25d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $3 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -59%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$3 -38%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $10 −$6 -63%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $5 +$2 +29%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $13 −$3 -26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $15 −$1 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $9 $0 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $9 +$1 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 25 $90 −$87 -97%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $70 +$15 +22%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $63 +$14 +22%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $38 +$25 +66%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$12 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$11 +71%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $13 +$3 +23%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $9 +$3 +30%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $8 +$2 +24%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $8 +$4 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $13 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 79¢ $3 14h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 14h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $5 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $9 16h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 19¢ $1 19d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 79¢ $3 19d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 21¢ $3 19d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $7 19d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $7 19d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 76¢ $5 19d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 98¢ $5 20d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 84¢ $5 20d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights SELL Avalanche 15¢ $5 20d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 27¢ $9 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 99¢ $8 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 70¢ $6 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 29¢ $6 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $9 20d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $10 21d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $9 21d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Miami Marlins 98¢ $9 21d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $9 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 96¢ $9 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $5 22d
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 22d
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.97 · official $12.97 (match) · 49 history records