Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
80 0x8045…2116 crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+6%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.1%
≤30d 6 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.1%
≤90d 6 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.1%
all 6 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 0% -4.1%
10% -13.3% 0% -13.3%
15% -21.7% 0% -21.7%
20% -29.4% 0% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records