Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8048…5c85 other 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$68 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate84%401W / 78L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$142
14 days−$140
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$22
tech 5% +$2
crypto 5% +$36
sports 2% −$113
culture 2% +$2
weather 1% +$9
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -19.8% -27.4% 26% 22% -18.7%
≤30d 86 -10.2% -18.7% 56% 16% -16.8%
≤90d 216 -2.1% -11.4% 81% 10% -9.9%
all 479 -0.6% -10.0% 84% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses401 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions6
Markets (closed)479 / 485
History coverage184d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 88¢ $49 $82 +$33 (+67%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 38¢ 39¢ $47 $49 +$1 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Ella Seidel 10¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 +$37 +74%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$40 +81%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $33 +$17 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $37 +$5 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $11 +$8 +76%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $48 −$2 -4%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$1 -4%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Set 1 Winner: Kudermetova vs Kraus Jun 14 $33 −$2 -5%
Polina Kudermetova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $44 −$2 -4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $51 +$3 +6%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $49 +$47 +95%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Krejcikova Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $33 $0 -2%
Robin Montgomery vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $61 +$33 +54%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $48 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $25 +$38 +148%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $25 +$18 +72%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-04-29? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 23? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Angelica Moratelli vs Carlota Martinez Cirez Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $6 $0 -4%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $87 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $48 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $90 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $11 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 5¢ $10 7h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 38¢ $48 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 12¢ $11 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $50 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $50 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $50 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 9¢ $0 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 9¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 9¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 9¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $12 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $12 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $12 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $11 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $11 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $11 8h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 10¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 37¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $10 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $17 9h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Mihalikova/Nicholls 56¢ $11 9h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $12 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $50 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $36 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.77 · official $236.39 (match) · 1294 history records