trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 11 | $1,216 | +$41 | +3% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 27 | $4,850 | +$165 | +3% |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 27 | $2,490 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 24 | $250 | +$180 | +72% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 20 | $14,905 | −$423 | -3% |
| Miami Open: Janice Tjen vs Yulia Putintseva | Mar 20 | $454 | −$454 | -100% |
| Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) | Mar 19 | $58 | +$42 | +72% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 18 | $147 | +$89 | +61% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 18 | $298 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 18 | $8,980 | −$424 | -5% |
| Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 | Mar 18 | $560 | +$440 | +78% |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) | Mar 17 | $144 | −$118 | -82% |
| Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) | Feb 15 | $675 | +$626 | +93% |
| Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Fnatic (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs | Feb 14 | $960 | −$324 | -34% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | Dec 23 | $750 | −$700 | -93% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | Dec 23 | $123 | −$83 | -67% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | Dec 23 | $327 | −$32 | -10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET | Dec 23 | $97 | −$76 | -78% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET | Dec 23 | $323 | +$108 | +33% |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? | Dec 22 | $61 | +$64 | +104% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week | Dec 21 | $472 | −$215 | -46% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Dec 21 | $2,017 | −$27 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 12 | +8.4% | -1.9% | 50% | 33% | -10.7% |
| all | 22 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 41% | 32% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -9.4% | 32% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 32% | -20.5% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -26.0% | 27% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 27% | -35.2% |