Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x804c…548f sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.2% -9.4% 51% 49% -12.8%
≤30d 37 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 51% -11.5%
≤90d 92 -0.8% -10.3% 51% 48% -10.5%
all 92 -0.8% -10.3% 51% 48% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 48% -10.5%
10% -18.9% 47% -19.1%
15% -26.7% 43% -26.9%
20% -33.9% 32% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 45
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions10
Markets (closed)92 / 102
History coverage55d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 61¢ 56¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 9z 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 54¢ 34¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$4 +344%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$5 +65%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$24 +121%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$5 -15%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$6 +101%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $16 +$13 +83%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $11 +$7 +62%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $15 +$3 +21%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $41 +$19 +47%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $3 +$5 +165%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$3 +29%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $8 +$6 +83%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$4 +74%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $1 $0 +23%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $20 +$14 +73%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $10 +$13 +129%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs VARREL - Map 1 Winner Apr 25 $32 +$18 +57%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: playersclub vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs aimclub - Map 1 Winner Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs aimclub (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 24 $6 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Apr 24 $36 +$46 +128%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $33 +$25 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $1 7m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $1 7m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 69¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 52¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 42¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 58¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 52¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 51¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 72¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.15 · official $39.15 (match) · 429 history records