Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x804d…cf86 weather 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$850 (-7%) realized −$850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%186W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$25
14 days−$1
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$290
other 9% −$533
sports 6% +$98
tech 4% −$119
crypto 3% −$25
world 0% −$8
economics 0% −$14
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +43.6% +29.9% 56% 39% -4.3%
≤30d 84 +19.4% +8.0% 43% 33% -7.2%
≤90d 325 +8.5% -1.8% 32% 27% -16.6%
all 535 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 26% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 26% -16.0%
10% -18.2% 22% -24.1%
15% -26.1% 18% -31.4%
20% -33.4% 15% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses186 / 349
Open positions1
Markets (closed)535 / 536
History coverage442d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $196 +$31 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $57 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? Jun 27 $62 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $51 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $15 −$4 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$9 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$14 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 −$11 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 +$22 +751%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$11 -91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$8 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$19 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$22 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$33 +484%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $65 −$49 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$14 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 −$11 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 +$11 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$10 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 +$15 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $91 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $83 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 87¢ $83 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 61¢ $53 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 64¢ $43 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $64 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $57 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? SELL No 56¢ $54 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? SELL No 65¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? BUY No 66¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? BUY No 58¢ $19 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.52 (match) · 1927 history records