Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x804d…632f crypto 101 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3398 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9,252 (+35%) realized +$9,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%56W / 45L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day3398.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3398 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +15.4% +4.4% 55% 53% -5.3%
≤30d 101 +15.4% +4.4% 55% 53% -5.3%
≤90d 101 +15.4% +4.4% 55% 53% -5.3%
all 101 +15.4% +4.4% 55% 53% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3398.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.4% 53% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.6% 53% -14.4%
15% -14.7% 50% -22.7%
20% -23.1% 41% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
33.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$207 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses56 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$258
Trades / day3398.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$58 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$108 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$14 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$129 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $484 +$928 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $34 +$51 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$18 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $136 +$120 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $140 −$41 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$169 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $59 +$57 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$87 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 −$93 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $447 −$123 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $84 +$114 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $450 −$279 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $232 −$219 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $411 −$89 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$53 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $339 −$323 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $593 −$593 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $439 +$163 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $191 −$170 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $717 −$717 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$15 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $377 +$169 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $359 +$173 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $799 −$799 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $390 +$196 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $682 +$489 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $559 +$434 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $326 −$326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $478 +$416 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $244 −$81 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $436 +$212 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $78 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $24 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $27 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $12 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records