Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

80 0x804d…5ab3 crypto 19 markets active 6d ago coverage 68d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$578 (-34%) realized −$578 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate32%6W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)+3.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+73.7%	+57.1%	44%	44%	-45.8%
≤30d	9	+73.7%	+57.1%	44%	44%	-45.8%
≤90d	19	+14.4%	+3.5%	32%	32%	-43.6%
all	19	+14.4%	+3.5%	32%	32%	-43.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.5%	32%	-43.6%
10%	-6.4%	32%	-49.0%
15%	-15.4%	32%	-53.9%
20%	-23.7%	32%	-58.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -32% → late +56% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$102 vs −$96 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.49 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$578

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses6 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage68d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 11	$255	−$255	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 11	$70	−$70	-100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 11	$62	+$38	+62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?	Jun 11	$51	−$50	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 11	$1	+$6	+945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 11	$145	+$120	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 11	$40	+$30	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 11	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Apr 08	$30	−$30	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Apr 08	$14	−$14	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Apr 08	$100	−$100	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Apr 08	$101	−$101	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Apr 08	$100	−$100	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Apr 08	$200	−$200	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Apr 08	$95	−$95	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Apr 08	$120	−$120	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Apr 04	$102	+$270	+265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Apr 04	$100	+$146	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$204	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$52	6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$62	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$145	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$70	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$40	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$101	73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$4	73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$10	73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$69	73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$26	73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$20	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$100	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$200	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$100	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$372	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$102	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$100	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$246	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$100	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$30	74d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	74d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records