Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x804f…05ac
world · 51 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$36
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage18d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 5 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$33
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $19 $16 −$3 (-16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 20¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 59¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Yes 36¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Daniil Sarksian vs Grigory Shebekin Jun 09 $2 +$2 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $8 $0 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in June? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Japan finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 05 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 05 $5 −$2 -40%
Will "Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)" win Best Original Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $5 $0 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $5 $0 -5%
Keys vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 01 $5 $0 -7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $5 $0 -8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 01 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 01 $5 $0 -4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 28 $5 $0 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 28 $5 $0 -4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 28 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? May 28 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% −$5
politics 23% −$6
weather 16% −$8
other 10% −$10
crypto 8% −$9
finance 5% −$1
sports 4% +$2
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $1 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $3 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.1% -15.9% 25% 19% -24.7%
≤30d 46 -12.2% -20.5% 9% 7% -22.2%
≤90d 46 -12.2% -20.5% 9% 7% -22.2%
all 46 -12.2% -20.5% 9% 7% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 7% -22.2%
10% -28.1% 7% -29.7%
15% -35.1% 7% -36.5%
20% -41.5% 7% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.19 · official $36.19 (match) · 192 history records