Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x8053…2a8e sports 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,442 (-19%) realized −$4,426 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%46W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$588
7 days+$787
14 days+$843
30 days+$843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$4,176
other 17% −$312
politics 1% −$125
crypto 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +6.2% -3.9% 43% 43% +10.5%
≤30d 25 +6.1% -4.0% 44% 44% +7.2%
≤90d 50 -21.5% -29.0% 34% 34% -24.0%
all 130 -22.1% -29.5% 35% 35% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 35% -28.4%
10% -36.3% 33% -35.2%
15% -42.4% 32% -41.5%
20% -48.1% 29% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$150 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized−$4,426
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses46 / 84
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions5
Markets (closed)130 / 135
History coverage589d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 47¢ 48¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$414 +203%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $135 −$132 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $168 +$271 +161%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$183 +180%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $736 −$333 -45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$251 +123%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 +$102 +101%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $179 −$89 -50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$79 +78%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$14 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$321 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$337 +165%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $203 +$183 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $508 −$500 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 +$556 +109%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) May 02 $254 −$250 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $90 −$88 -98%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $90 +$95 +105%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 06 $150 −$147 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Apr 06 $100 +$146 +146%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 05 $224 −$220 -98%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $300 −$296 -98%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $200 +$227 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Mar 30 $83 −$82 -99%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5) Mar 30 $96 +$88 +92%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 28 $408 −$407 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $240 −$239 -100%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 22 $200 −$199 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $200 +$233 +116%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $200 −$199 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 21 $150 −$149 -100%
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-1.5) Mar 21 $85 +$84 +99%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $203 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 99¢ $619 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $204 8h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 31¢ $102 21h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 32¢ $32 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $440 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $168 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $285 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $102 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $329 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $382 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $407 3d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $102 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $90 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $179 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 99¢ $180 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 55¢ $101 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 31¢ $190 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $204 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.38 · official $580.12 (match) · 282 history records