Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8054…d442 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3
other 20% −$1
politics 4% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.2% 56% 11% -9.3%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 6% -9.4%
all 39 -0.7% -10.2% 46% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage448d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 31¢ 53¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $134 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $8 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $12 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 06 $1 $0 -31%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $49 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $48 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $48 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $48 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $48 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $48 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $49 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $47 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records