Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8056…9507 crypto 396 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,464 (-24%) realized −$9,462 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate40%260W / 394L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day123.8pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,665
7 days−$7,121
14 days−$7,568
30 days−$9,270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,126
crypto 28% −$1,579
other 13% −$514
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 407 -11.5% -19.9% 31% 10% -35.7%
≤30d 654 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 19% -28.9%
≤90d 654 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 19% -28.9%
all 654 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 19% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 19% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 15% -35.7%
15% -25.8% 11% -41.9%
20% -33.1% 9% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$36 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized−$9,462
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses260 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions3
Markets (closed)654 / 396
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day123.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 654 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $350 $367 +$17 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 362 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$129 -12403%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $0 +$1 +612%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 20 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $181 −$181 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 20 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. Torino FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Abidjan 2: Michael Geerts vs Niels Visker Jun 20 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 +$14 +28621%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-04? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$19 -134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $0 +$75 +80125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 −$43 -523%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $44 58m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $178 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $41 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $16 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $179 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $148 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 99¢ $104 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $196 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $30 2h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 3h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $392 15h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $215 15h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $134 15h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 18h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $35 19h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.93 · official $478.79 (match) · 3500 history records