Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8057…9570 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-5%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -7.1% -16.0% 72% 56% -17.0%
≤30d 32 -7.1% -16.0% 72% 56% -17.0%
≤90d 32 -7.1% -16.0% 72% 56% -17.0%
all 32 -7.1% -16.0% 72% 56% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 56% -17.0%
10% -24.0% 38% -24.9%
15% -31.3% 16% -32.2%
20% -38.1% 3% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records