Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8059…40da crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3447 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,385 (+55%) realized +$6,524 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate62%33W / 20L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day3447.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3447 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 11% -7.9%
≤30d 53 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 11% -7.9%
≤90d 53 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 11% -7.9%
all 53 +3.0% -6.8% 62% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3447.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 11% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 4% -16.7%
15% -23.9% 4% -24.8%
20% -31.3% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
62.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$6,524
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses33 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$210
Trades / day3447.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $195 $321 +$126 (+65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 61¢ 50¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $133 $2 −$132 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $467 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $358 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $337 −$21 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $259 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $225 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $469 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $195 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $338 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $209 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $394 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $136 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $182 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $259 −$13 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $279 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $84 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $367 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $231 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $151 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $108 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $94 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $211 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $140 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $156 −$20 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $210 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $288 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $274 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $183 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $123 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $93 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $506 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $168 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $159 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $136 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $190 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $121 +$57 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $190 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $169 −$20 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $123 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $123 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $275 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $144 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $295 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $154 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $135 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $155 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $119 −$6 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.19 · official $391.19 (match) · 3500 history records