Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x8060…2b5b other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 28% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 17 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage449d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $27 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $31 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 20m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 8h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $30 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $32 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 17d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $32 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $31 20d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 356d
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 94¢ $2 357d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 376d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 376d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 376d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 376d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 SELL No 90¢ $4 376d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.76 · official $6.76 (match) · 62 history records