Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x8061…6e78 sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-6%) realized −$93 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%69W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$52
14 days+$37
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$94
world 5% −$14
other 4% $0
crypto 3% −$18
economics 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.0% +14.9% 82% 64% +25.2%
≤30d 31 +2.4% -7.4% 68% 42% -4.0%
≤90d 114 -2.5% -11.7% 58% 49% -7.9%
all 133 -13.2% -21.4% 52% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 44% -15.6%
10% -29.0% 43% -23.6%
15% -35.8% 39% -31.0%
20% -42.1% 33% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses69 / 64
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions14
Markets (closed)133 / 147
History coverage109d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 49¢ 90¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+85%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 58¢ 22¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $20 +$15 +73%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $10 +$7 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 +$9 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $8 −$8 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $9 +$8 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 06 $10 +$8 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 06 $10 +$10 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 06 $20 +$16 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 26 $10 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 26 $20 +$28 +140%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $9 +$3 +33%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $20 +$6 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 16 $20 +$11 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $20 +$12 +60%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $20 +$18 +90%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 02 $20 +$19 +93%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $20 +$31 +152%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 53¢ $10 4d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 96¢ $10 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $10 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $20 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 56¢ $8 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $10 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $10 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 58¢ $10 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $20 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 57¢ $20 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 9d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $9 20d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $10 20d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $10 20d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 50¢ $10 20d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $10 20d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 100¢ $20 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $20 20d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 53¢ $20 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.98 · official $154.98 (match) · 228 history records