Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
80 0x8067…71bf other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+40%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$4
sports 12% +$12
world 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +50.0% +35.7% 47% 47% +26.1%
≤30d 15 +50.0% +35.7% 47% 47% +26.1%
≤90d 15 +50.0% +35.7% 47% 47% +26.1%
all 15 +50.0% +35.7% 47% 47% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.7% 47% +26.1%
10% +22.7% 47% +14.0%
15% +10.9% 40% +3.0%
20% -0.0% 40% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +218%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +594%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $7 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $14 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 81¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 49¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 35 history records