Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8071…b139 sports 77 markets active 3h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-7%) realized −$205 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$292
other 41% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -83.3% -84.9% 0% 0% -81.8%
≤90d 56 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 38% -16.9%
all 71 -12.1% -20.5% 46% 34% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 34% -18.5%
10% -28.1% 31% -26.3%
15% -35.0% 31% -33.4%
20% -41.4% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 38
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage217d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $19 −$10 -50%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$12 +79%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score May 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 15 $14 +$12 +86%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $41 −$28 -69%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $50 +$23 +46%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $92 −$83 -91%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $21 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $10 +$13 +123%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Apr 28 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $10 +$39 +388%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $10 +$13 +134%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $20 +$17 +85%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $15 −$5 -33%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $10 −$8 -81%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $97 −$53 -54%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $30 −$9 -30%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $107 +$51 +48%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $100 −$98 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 11 $246 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 10 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $50 +$43 +86%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $85 +$57 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $50 −$49 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 05 $100 +$9 +9%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $10 +$6 +65%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $190 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 02 $20 +$4 +20%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $10 +$6 +61%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Thunder vs. 76ers Mar 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $191 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $10 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw BUY 3¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 9¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 6d
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $9 24d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Lucknow Super Giants 23¢ $10 28d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 44¢ $19 28d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 30d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 31d
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $40 31d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Lucknow Super Giants 44¢ $25 33d
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $14 34d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians SELL Mumbai Indians 14¢ $13 37d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 43¢ $41 37d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 52¢ $20 38d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 50¢ $10 38d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 38d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans SELL Rajasthan Royals 3¢ $9 38d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Rajasthan Royals 26¢ $51 38d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Rajasthan Royals 38¢ $41 39d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Delhi Capitals 13¢ $21 40d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 51¢ $23 48d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 22¢ $10 49d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 50d
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 50d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 50d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru SELL Delhi Capitals 0¢ $0 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.29 · official $290.29 · 141 history records