Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
80 0x8072…0ef3 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17,746 (+13%) realized +$21,669 · open −$3,923
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,645per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$889est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$519
14 days+$580
30 days+$1,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$10,645
sports 27% +$10,347
other 1% −$578
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +194.8% +166.7% 29% 29% -54.6%
≤30d 19 +56.8% +41.9% 37% 32% -1.9%
≤90d 77 +21.1% +9.6% 39% 35% +9.2%
all 77 +21.1% +9.6% 39% 35% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 35% +9.2%
10% -0.9% 29% -1.2%
15% -10.5% 25% -10.8%
20% -19.2% 21% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$983 vs −$110 · ×8.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.72 per $1 lost it wins $5.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$864
Realized+$21,669
Unrealized−$3,923
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$889
Open positions5
Markets (closed)77 / 82
History coverage95d
Avg bet$1,645
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 59¢ 16¢ $1,457 $384 −$1,073 (-74%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $850 $210 −$640 (-75%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 68¢ $2,200 $18 −$2,182 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 +$19 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $488 −$480 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$379 +1845%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $334 +$1,100 +329%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $4,000 +$624 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $272 −$270 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $414 −$405 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $267 −$260 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $811 +$59 +7%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $5,000 +$588 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 19 $1,021 +$536 +52%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $27 −$26 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $409 −$200 -49%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $154 −$150 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $216 −$211 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $300 −$189 -63%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 May 03 $300 −$28 -9%
Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NB May 03 $300 +$3 +1%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $97 −$23 -23%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $225 +$910 +404%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $154 +$271 +176%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 01 $41 −$40 -97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $7,500 +$1,494 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $5,000 +$1,117 +22%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $70 +$46 +65%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 27 $70 +$70 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $10 +$112 +1116%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Apr 23 $200 −$197 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $200 −$199 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $1,000 −$19 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $8,500 +$2,073 +24%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $300 +$118 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,000 −$50 -5%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 21 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $9,500 +$3,763 +40%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 22m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $122 45m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $31 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $718 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $31 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $51 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 44¢ $102 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 53¢ $304 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $891 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.16 · official $853.61 · 385 history records