Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8074…502f world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$4
other 7% +$1
crypto 7% $0
politics 5% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.8% -10.2% 60% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -10.0%
all 30 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage369d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $27 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 −$6 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $69 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $62 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $62 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $63 −$2 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $114 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 02 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -12%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $42 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $23 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $17 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $17 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $72 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $69 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $63 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $62 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $61 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $19 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $16 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $26 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $36 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.67 · official $59.67 (match) · 94 history records