Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x8076…85f9 sports 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$462 (+3%) realized +$521 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%56W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$103
14 days+$329
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,526
tech 5% −$649
crypto 4% −$385
politics 4% −$117
other 2% −$106
weather 2% −$54
finance 0% −$40
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +17.4% +6.2% 19% 19% +9.6%
≤30d 31 +23.7% +11.9% 35% 35% +6.1%
≤90d 122 +11.5% +0.9% 29% 29% +21.2%
all 256 -8.5% -17.2% 22% 21% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 21% -7.9%
10% -25.1% 21% -16.7%
15% -32.4% 21% -24.8%
20% -39.0% 21% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$46 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized+$521
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses56 / 200
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions7
Markets (closed)256 / 264
History coverage554d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $299 $284 −$15 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Yes $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$20 -77%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $108 −$36 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$121 +769%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$53 +623%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $64 −$62 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$200 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$10 +25%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $22 +$42 +188%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$70 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$126 +247%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $25 +$27 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $34 −$33 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $162 −$159 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $20 +$28 +140%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $23 +$80 +354%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $42 −$41 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $175 −$75 -43%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $34 −$33 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $79 −$77 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $303 −$295 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $129 −$126 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $85 −$83 -98%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards May 03 $26 −$25 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $306 +$663 +216%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $116 +$59 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $16 +$31 +197%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $58 +$145 +250%
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1? Apr 30 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes $21 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes $31 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 37¢ $21 36h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 35¢ $2 36h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 29¢ $64 39h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $81 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 67¢ $55 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.95 · official $483.95 (match) · 832 history records