Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8078…5314 world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 0% -5.7%
≤90d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 0% -5.7%
all 3 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 0% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 0% -5.7%
10% -15.5% 0% -14.8%
15% -23.6% 0% -23.0%
20% -31.1% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 22 $71 +$7 +10%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $37 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 2h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 2h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $41 3h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 3h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $71 4h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $62 2d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 2d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records