Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

80 0x807a…8bdb crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$965 (+10%) realized +$971 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate60%15W / 10L

Whale WR57%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$376per market

Trades / day33.8pace

Fees−$41est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$818now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+3.3%	-6.5%	60%	56%	+1.4%
≤30d	25	+3.3%	-6.5%	60%	56%	+1.4%
≤90d	25	+3.3%	-6.5%	60%	56%	+1.4%
all	25	+3.3%	-6.5%	60%	56%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.5%	56%	+1.4%
10% ← realistic here	-15.5%	52%	-8.3%
15%	-23.6%	52%	-17.2%
20%	-31.1%	48%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 57% (≥$511) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +9% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$282 vs −$311 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.36 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$818

Realized+$971

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses15 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)57%

Est. fees paid−$41

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 27

History coverage2d

Avg bet$376

Trades / day33.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	52¢	$561	$566	+$6 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	44¢	42¢	$264	$252	−$12 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 19	$204	+$244	+120%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,240	+$760	+61%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$560	+$440	+79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$119	−$117	-99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$331	−$331	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$645	−$636	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 18	$361	+$330	+92%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears	Jun 18	$681	−$611	-90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 18	$206	−$200	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 18	$207	+$198	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 18	$209	−$209	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,050	+$450	+43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$511	+$359	+70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$430	+$470	+109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$261	+$251	+96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$704	−$704	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 17	$446	+$260	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 17	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 17	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 17	$119	+$112	+94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 17	$101	+$14	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 17	$206	+$163	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 17	$101	+$8	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 17	$308	+$164	+53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$569	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$100	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	44¢	$150	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	44¢	$114	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$18	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$36	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$1	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$16	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$18	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$87	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$320	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$19	13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	62¢	$726	13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$119	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$1	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$52	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$3	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$1	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$10	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$5	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$3	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$107	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$5	16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$142	16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$645	17h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$560	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$51	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$103	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$103	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $818.50 · official $818.50 (match) · 91 history records