Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x807a…3be2 sports 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL −$353 (-13%) realized −$385 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%102W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$31
14 days+$64
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$311
other 28% −$81
crypto 2% +$18
world 1% −$3
finance 0% −$10
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.6% -3.6% 57% 57% +0.7%
≤30d 98 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 40% -15.2%
≤90d 244 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 41% -23.1%
all 244 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 41% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 41% -23.1%
10% -31.7% 40% -30.4%
15% -38.3% 40% -37.2%
20% -44.4% 37% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$385
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses102 / 142
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage79d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Gen.G 33¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 35¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 40¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 58¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Fujieda MYFC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 56¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Under 58¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 Under 54¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-09? Yes 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-06? Yes 39¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 57¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Over 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 61¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-05? Yes 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Dynamo vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Team WE 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Top Esports 41¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 55¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 KT Rolster 61¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 41¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 53¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? Yes 35¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$19 +125%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$15 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $13 +$15 +114%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $15 +$14 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$30 +146%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$9 +37%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$8 +83%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$9 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 −$1 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$11 +113%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 $0 -10%
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) Jun 07 $20 +$20 +97%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $30 +$27 +90%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$6 +119%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $16 −$6 -37%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $10 +$13 +124%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 166.5 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $9 +$14 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $25 −$5 -19%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $15 +$14 +89%
Mexico vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 28 $16 −$16 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL No 34¢ $9 9h
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 50¢ $9 10h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 29¢ $8 11h
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 22¢ $10 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 94¢ $34 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $15 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $25 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $8 14h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $10 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $16 15h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $15 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $10 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $10 18h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $20 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 23h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 53¢ $13 34h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $13 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $29 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 93¢ $50 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 37¢ $20 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $10 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 53¢ $15 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $15 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $15 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $28 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 54¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.82 · official $13.82 (match) · 439 history records