Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x807e…a7ef crypto 581 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$144 (+7%) realized +$123 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate70%405W / 175L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$33
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$69
other 10% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -65.6% -68.9% 25% 25% +14.7%
≤30d 412 +5.0% -5.0% 67% 67% -3.3%
≤90d 580 +3.9% -6.0% 70% 67% -4.9%
all 580 +3.9% -6.0% 70% 67% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 67% -4.9%
10% -15.0% 62% -14.0%
15% -23.2% 54% -22.3%
20% -30.7% 34% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses405 / 175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)580 / 581
History coverage40d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $120 $141 +$21 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $121 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.11 · official $141.11 (match) · 1213 history records