Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

80 0x8081…18b8 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$4,014 (+14%) realized +$4,014 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%12W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,684per market

Trades / day6.1pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+54.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+71.2%	+54.9%	100%	67%	+11.0%
≤30d	12	+71.2%	+54.9%	100%	67%	+11.0%
≤90d	12	+71.2%	+54.9%	100%	67%	+11.0%
all	12	+71.2%	+54.9%	100%	67%	+11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.1 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+54.9%	67%	+11.0%
10% ← realistic here	+40.1%	50%	+0.4%
15%	+26.6%	42%	-9.3%
20%	+14.2%	42%	-18.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +71% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +107% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$509 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$4,014

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses12 / 0

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions0

Markets (closed)12 / 17

History coverage6d

Avg bet$1,684

Trades / day6.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 12 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$1,003	+$94	+9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$6,010	+$350	+6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$6,905	+$162	+2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$1,011	+$576	+57%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt?	Jun 22	$1,004	+$148	+15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$1,522	+$1,838	+121%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$1,007	+$307	+30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$3,993	+$559	+14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$507	+$377	+74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$3,314	+$90	+3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$306	+$606	+198%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND	Jun 19	$307	+$997	+325%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,097	1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	91¢	$1,003	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6,360	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	98¢	$2,001	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	94¢	$2,004	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	91¢	$2,005	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	32¢	$510	14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7,067	24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	99¢	$2,901	24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	97¢	$2,002	24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	96¢	$2,002	24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	63¢	$1,011	38h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,152	2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt?	BUY Yes	87¢	$1,004	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,360	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	29¢	$511	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$1,012	2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,314	2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,007	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	32¢	$219	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	32¢	$87	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	30¢	$102	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	30¢	$102	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,552	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$2,983	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,010	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	22¢	$210	3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	99¢	$884	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	100¢	$3,293	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	91¢	$3,008	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records