Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8082…4d66 crypto 192 markets active 5d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,171 (-3%) realized −$2,171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%113W / 79L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days+$652
30 days−$1,101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$956
crypto 25% −$1,850
other 4% −$1,858
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.1% -32.2% 50% 50% -45.9%
≤30d 94 +2.6% -7.2% 65% 54% -14.7%
≤90d 138 -2.7% -12.0% 60% 51% -16.5%
all 192 -2.2% -11.6% 59% 52% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 52% -13.0%
10% -20.0% 44% -21.3%
15% -27.7% 37% -28.9%
20% -34.8% 29% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$338 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses113 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage124d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $311 −$302 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $164 +$147 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$65 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$24 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$12 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $167 +$146 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$78 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$118 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$51 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $161 −$90 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $111 +$49 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $167 −$162 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $168 −$163 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$144 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $329 +$176 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$162 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $312 +$76 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $291 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $456 +$98 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $131 +$63 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $236 −$105 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$69 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$135 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $859 −$63 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $109 +$51 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $145 −$44 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$33 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$199 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $286 +$94 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $111 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $249 +$236 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $363 +$377 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $123 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $124 +$64 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $692 −$124 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $452 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $685 +$104 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $282 +$90 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $48 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $46 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $311 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $164 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $47 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $99 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $49 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $49 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $24 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $303 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $313 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $167 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $167 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $89 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $122 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $122 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $71 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 371 history records