Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8084…4e7e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$130 (-32%) realized +$21 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$142
tech 25% −$9
world 1% −$1
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 47¢ 14¢ $199 $57 −$142 (-71%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 19¢ 22¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $26 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $203 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.07 · official $247.07 (match) · 14 history records