Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8086…d8ee crypto 405 markets active 5h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-4%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%234W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$0
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$39
sports 21% −$6
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +15.4% +4.4% 74% 57% +2.9%
≤30d 128 -12.0% -20.4% 55% 41% -16.7%
≤90d 404 -9.9% -18.5% 58% 44% -17.1%
all 404 -9.9% -18.5% 58% 44% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 44% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 31% -25.1%
15% -33.4% 20% -32.3%
20% -40.0% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses234 / 170
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)404 / 405
History coverage37d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +81%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $2 $0 -20%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1 −$1 -66%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 +$1 +77%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $1 +$1 +111%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $1 +$1 +55%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1 −$1 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $3 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $3 36h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) SELL Jordan 99¢ $3 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $3 36h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $3 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $1 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $1 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 90¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.26 · official $3.26 (match) · 964 history records