Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8089…eae6 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$5
politics 31% −$6
world 12% −$1
tech 10% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$940) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage97d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $998 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $957 −$2 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $940 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $911 −$1 -0%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Apr 14 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $947 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $201 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 24 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $996 1h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $956 1h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $963 2h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $949 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $955 2h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 2h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $957 3h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 43d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 43d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 43d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 43d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 43d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 43d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $20 72d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 72d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $20 72d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 72d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 85¢ $12 73d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 73d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 73d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records