Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x808d…ebfd other 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,947 (+1%) realized +$5,972 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate61%228W / 147L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$1,040per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$201
14 days+$279
30 days+$5,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$3,232
other 28% +$847
tech 9% +$1,455
politics 8% +$427
crypto 0% +$13
finance 0% −$5
economics 0% +$6
sports 0% −$18
weather 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.6% +10.0% 100% 100% +10.0%
≤30d 4 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 50% +7.9%
≤90d 122 -43.2% -48.6% 45% 14% -8.0%
all 375 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 32% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 32% -8.2%
10% -22.4% 20% -16.9%
15% -29.9% 15% -25.0%
20% -36.8% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$46 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$2,316
Realized+$5,972
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses228 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)375 / 383
History coverage243d
Avg bet$1,040
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 83¢ $1,290 $1,245 −$45 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 77¢ 77¢ $542 $539 −$3 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 92¢ 93¢ $461 $463 +$1 (+0%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 69¢ 76¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 44¢ 80¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+82%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 62¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+60%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No 67¢ 88¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 59¢ 99¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 11 $931 +$201 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $9,291 +$78 +1%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $15,556 +$4,899 +32%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1,430 +$54 +4%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $5,396 +$43 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $7,027 +$291 +4%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 12 $3,282 +$74 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $12,269 −$5,598 -46%
Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 07 $9 +$1 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $7,598 +$116 +2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 02 $34 +$1 +3%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $12,612 +$102 +1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 28 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 28 $15 +$3 +23%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 27 $21 +$2 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $26 $0 -1%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 27 $558 +$22 +4%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 27 $3,399 +$7 +0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31? Apr 26 $186 +$5 +2%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 25 $3,562 +$53 +2%
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week? Apr 24 $792 −$271 -34%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $13,827 +$1,384 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $502 +$88 +18%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $8,947 +$12 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $13,509 +$31 +0%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 21 $4,078 +$33 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $3 +$2 +75%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 19 $16 −$9 -53%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $13,460 +$41 +0%
Will FalleN retire by June 1? Apr 17 $733 +$8 +1%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 13 $13,322 +$279 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $8,941 +$174 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 09 $12,875 +$277 +2%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $12,166 +$242 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $38 −$38 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $10,239 +$14 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $12,470 +$144 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026? Apr 03 $596 +$2 +0%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? Apr 02 $41 +$19 +47%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $10,694 +$965 +9%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 01 $5 +$3 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Apr 01 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Mar 31 $10,516 +$124 +1%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $291 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $183 35m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $59 39m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $93 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $393 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $120 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $159 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $179 14d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 14d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 15d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 15d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 15d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 15d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 76¢ $4 15d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 76¢ $62 15d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 15d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 82¢ $6 17d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 82¢ $37 17d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 82¢ $46 17d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 82¢ $23 17d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $461 17d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $275 17d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $112 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 99¢ $1,844 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 99¢ $1,358 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 99¢ $4,960 17d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 82¢ $25 17d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J BUY No 82¢ $501 17d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,315.50 · official $2,315.94 (match) · 1979 history records