Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8090…a8af crypto 647 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$387 (-3%) realized −$349 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate67%430W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$67
14 days+$42
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$64
crypto 32% −$133
other 30% +$58
weather 6% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 84 -3.1% -12.3% 94% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 645 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 20% -11.8%
all 645 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 20% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 20% -11.8%
10% -21.5% 16% -20.3%
15% -29.1% 14% -28.0%
20% -36.0% 10% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses430 / 215
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)645 / 647
History coverage69d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? No 99¢ 98¢ $370 $367 −$2 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 97¢ 96¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $488 +$5 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $400 +$12 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $38 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $460 +$11 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $75 +$2 +2%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals Jun 13 $63 +$1 +1%
Malik Tillman: 3+ goals Jun 13 $63 +$1 +1%
Tim Weah: 3+ goals Jun 13 $141 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $199 +$5 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $182 +$4 +2%
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Jovo Lukić: 2+ goals Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $99 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $99 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $135 +$2 +1%
Son Heungmin: 3+ Goals Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 11 $39 +$1 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $39 +$1 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $40 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $39 +$1 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $39 +$1 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $39 +$1 +2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $40 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $40 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $40 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $40 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 97¢ $39 4m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $129 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ $39 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 97¢ $39 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 98¢ $39 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $128 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $180 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $180 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 99¢ $40 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $39 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 99¢ $40 17h
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 98¢ $47 20h
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 97¢ $106 21h
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 97¢ $94 21h
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 97¢ $200 21h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 98¢ $39 22h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 96¢ $38 23h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 98¢ $60 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 98¢ $200 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 98¢ $200 26h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $39 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $75 46h
Tim Weah: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 46h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $100 47h
Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 47h
Tim Weah: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 47h
Malik Tillman: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $63 47h
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $12 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.60 · official $445.60 (match) · 3500 history records