Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8092…1745 sports 412 markets active 7h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$312 (-3%) realized −$306 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%205W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$208
14 days−$242
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$369
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -27.9% -34.8% 38% 38% -35.8%
≤30d 130 -10.4% -19.0% 47% 47% -22.2%
≤90d 383 +2.4% -7.4% 51% 51% -12.9%
all 408 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 50% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 50% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 50% -21.3%
15% -24.8% 48% -28.9%
20% -32.2% 46% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$306
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses205 / 203
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions4
Markets (closed)408 / 412
History coverage97d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 62¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-22%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $6 +$4 +58%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $30 +$21 +69%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $31 +$36 +119%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $30 +$19 +63%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $31 +$46 +149%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $31 +$49 +159%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $30 +$26 +87%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $30 +$26 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $30 +$28 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $30 +$26 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $30 +$27 +89%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $30 +$27 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $31 +$35 +113%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $31 +$32 +106%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $30 +$24 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $30 +$30 +99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $30 +$28 +91%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $30 −$30 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $30 −$30 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $30 +$22 +71%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $30 +$22 +74%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $30 +$30 +99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $30 +$21 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 90¢ $10 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $8 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $8 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $6 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $6 14h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $8 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $8 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $6 16h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $6 17h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $6 18h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $6 20h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 91¢ $10 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 91¢ $10 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 91¢ $10 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 91¢ $10 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 91¢ $10 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $6 34h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $6 35h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $6 37h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $6 37h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $6 38h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $6 39h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $6 40h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $6 41h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $6 42h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $6 44h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $30 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $6 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $6 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.48 · official $99.48 (match) · 2793 history records