Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8093…dc2f world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$9
other 23% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 9% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 0% -12.5%
all 31 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.9%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 82¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $36 −$9 -24%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 16 $12 $0 +4%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 05 $13 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $16 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 03 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $27 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $30 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $30 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $27 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $13 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $26 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $9 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.23 · official $27.23 (match) · 80 history records