Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8095…8d4e crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$305 (+21%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate81%26W / 6L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +21.6% +10.1% 81% 66% +6.7%
≤30d 32 +21.6% +10.1% 81% 66% +6.7%
≤90d 32 +21.6% +10.1% 81% 66% +6.7%
all 32 +21.6% +10.1% 81% 66% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 66% +6.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.5% 50% -3.5%
15% -10.1% 41% -12.8%
20% -18.9% 28% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses26 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $121 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$29 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $121 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $66 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$11 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $41 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $213 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $135 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records