Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8098…d316 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-8%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$584
7 days−$584
14 days−$584
30 days−$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$259
sports 4% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 32% -36.4%
≤30d 44 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 32% -36.4%
≤90d 81 -12.4% -20.8% 52% 42% -19.3%
all 81 -12.4% -20.8% 52% 42% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 42% -19.3%
10% -28.3% 28% -27.0%
15% -35.3% 22% -34.1%
20% -41.6% 16% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage36d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $102 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$25 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $77 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $102 −$35 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$8 +8%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 26 $102 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $129 +$120 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $153 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $9 −$8 -86%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $51 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 24 $26 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records