Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
80 0x809f…9cfa sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$494 (+10%) realized +$549 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$68
14 days+$248
30 days+$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 31% +$214
other 28% +$9
world 23% +$373
crypto 13% −$203
sports 6% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +15.6% +4.6% 64% 50% -1.1%
≤30d 28 +36.7% +23.7% 75% 68% +7.6%
≤90d 31 +37.0% +24.0% 77% 71% +9.5%
all 35 +27.4% +15.3% 74% 63% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 63% +0.9%
10% +4.3% 51% -8.8%
15% -5.8% 43% -17.6%
20% -15.0% 34% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$825
Realized+$549
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage218d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 80¢ $600 $531 −$69 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 60¢ $210 $234 +$24 (+11%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 75¢ 58¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Yes 75¢ 79¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $150 +$13 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $421 +$26 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$16 -52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$3 -14%
Jacob Shaffelburg: 2+ shots Jun 19 $10 +$16 +158%
Jonathan David: 3+ shots Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,004 +$119 +12%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ shots Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $242 +$69 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $600 +$200 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 09 $300 +$116 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $50 +$33 +67%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $300 +$46 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 19? Nov 18 $229 −$229 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 18 $85 +$8 +10%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 18 $502 +$14 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 43m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $150 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $602 11h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $421 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 69¢ $16 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $210 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $15 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $18 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Jacob Shaffelburg: 2+ shots BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Jonathan David: 3+ shots BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 8d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 89¢ $502 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 89¢ $502 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 87¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.81 · official $824.81 (match) · 72 history records