Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80a0…5708 world 93 markets active 13h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$163,935 (+25%) realized +$137,559 · open +$26,376
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%31W / 42L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$6,928per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$1,454est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$98,083now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,416
7 days−$8,994
14 days+$2,820
30 days−$7,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$75,991
sports 11% −$26,050
other 11% +$43,059
finance 9% +$44,568
politics 1% −$2,230
crypto 0% −$3,263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.1% -3.1% 33% 33% -45.7%
≤30d 37 -4.1% -13.2% 38% 30% -11.2%
≤90d 73 +2.8% -7.0% 42% 34% +8.7%
all 73 +2.8% -7.0% 42% 34% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 34% +8.7%
10% -15.9% 26% -1.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 21% -11.2%
20% -31.4% 19% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$7,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,344 vs −$2,904 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$98,083
Realized+$137,559
Unrealized+$26,376
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,454
Open positions27
Markets (closed)73 / 93
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$6,928
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 84¢ 95¢ $20,828 $23,430 +$2,603 (+12%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 24¢ 54¢ $9,485 $20,956 +$11,471 (+121%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 51¢ 86¢ $9,834 $16,383 +$6,549 (+67%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $7,949 $8,048 +$100 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 87¢ 100¢ $3,371 $3,859 +$488 (+14%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 41¢ 68¢ $2,259 $3,766 +$1,507 (+67%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $2,702 $3,398 +$696 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 68¢ 81¢ $2,720 $3,260 +$540 (+20%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $1,882 $2,096 +$215 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,252 $2,090 −$162 (-7%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1,110 $2,070 +$960 (+86%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $703 $1,786 +$1,083 (+154%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1,190 $1,372 +$183 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1,254 $1,068 −$186 (-15%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $663 $1,007 +$344 (+52%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $709 $924 +$215 (+30%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1,075 $615 −$461 (-43%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $150 $495 +$345 (+230%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $428 $258 −$170 (-40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $250 $254 +$4 (+2%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $149 $254 +$105 (+70%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $235 +$65 (+38%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $99 $152 +$53 (+54%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $165 $82 −$82 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 16 $4,906 −$2,433 -50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $126 −$98 -78%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -81%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $7,709 −$5,848 -76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $83 −$35 -41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $840 +$2,160 +257%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5,266 −$5,124 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $635 −$635 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $574 +$276 +48%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,304 +$325 +25%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $720 +$2,720 +378%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $362 −$245 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $282 +$754 +267%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $863 +$1,136 +132%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,922 +$10,169 +259%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $17,276 +$485 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $35,753 +$4,335 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $756 −$535 -71%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $2,885 −$1,898 -66%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $6,082 −$5,842 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $87 −$87 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $255 −$148 -58%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $1,120 +$1,131 +101%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $1,400 −$1,307 -93%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $20,843 −$8,465 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $682 −$682 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,200 −$200 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $130 −$130 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $1,487 −$71 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $2,881 +$300 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $32,859 −$3,001 -9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $426 −$326 -76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $17,446 +$3,675 +21%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $187 +$39 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $28,215 +$2,960 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $3,288 −$1,891 -58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $56,824 +$15,669 +28%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $4,200 +$149 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $3,315 −$973 -29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 06 $2,709 −$311 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,140 +$240 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 23 $480 −$370 -77%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $1,210 −$727 -60%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $580 −$440 -76%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $3,196 +$529 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $21,179 −$11,544 -54%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $57,497 −$30,856 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 68¢ $1,359 13h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $63 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $426 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $49 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $83 37h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 20¢ $201 40h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,190 40h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 20¢ $2 40h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 20¢ $3 40h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 20¢ $94 40h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $456 42h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 30¢ $600 43h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $43 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $620 45h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $410 47h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 47h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $240 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,024 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,109 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 10¢ $26 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 10¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98,082.71 · official $98,121.61 (match) · 3500 history records